Lead
President Trump has fired two cabinet members in under a month. Multiple news outlets now report he is weighing more. FBI Director Kash Patel tops this forecast. Below: who is most likely to go next, why, when — and who will take their place.
The four names on Trump's short list
On April 2, 2026, Trump fired Attorney General Pam Bondi. That same day, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth fired Army Chief of Staff General Randy George. Within hours, The Atlantic, Politico, and Reuters reported that the White House is now discussing more exits. Names that keep coming up: FBI Director Kash Patel, Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.
We also include White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt. On March 31, Trump publicly questioned her job performance in front of the press corps — a pattern that has preceded past firings.
One senior aide told Politico: "He's very angry and he's going to be moving people."
90-day risk snapshot (model)
| Official | Role | Risk | Est. date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kash Patel | FBI Director | 47% | April 24, 2026 |
| Lori Chavez-DeRemer | Labor Secretary | 38% | May 8, 2026 |
| Daniel Driscoll | Army Secretary | 29% | May 22, 2026 |
| Karoline Leavitt | Press Secretary | 14% | July 10, 2026 |
How we built these numbers
These percentages come from a five-factor risk model: active exit reporting (35%), public scandal pressure (25%), job sensitivity (15%), ease of replacement (15%), and Trump media pressure (10%).
Prediction markets back up the direction. Kalshi showed Patel-related departure odds moving in the same pattern that preceded Bondi's firing. Polymarket shows elevated volume on administration-exit contracts. Lee Zeldin leads markets for next Attorney General.
The Trump firing pattern
- Leaks first — unnamed aides signal frustration or possible changes.
- Public distancing — praise with a "but," or jokes about firing.
- Trigger event — hearing, headline, or political need to shift blame.
- The firing — often announced on Truth Social, frequently within ~48 hours of the final leak cycle.
Brookings data shows Trump's first-term senior staff turnover hit 92% by the end of his term. His second-term "A Team" turnover stood at 29% by January 2026 — nearly three times the 10% historical average at the same point.
Profile: Kash Patel (47%)
Patel is named in Reuters reporting (April 3, 2026) about active departure discussions — the strongest signal in the model. Iran-linked hackers breached his personal email in March 2026 (CNN/Reuters). He faces scrutiny over FBI jet travel to the Milan Olympics, Epstein-file politics, and a push to release material on Congressman Eric Swalwell. Most likely replacement: Andrew Bailey (FBI co-deputy director). Backup: Christopher Raia (career deputy).
Profile: Lori Chavez-DeRemer (38%)
Named in the same Reuters exit story as Patel and Driscoll. The Labor Department IG opened an investigation in January 2026 into office drinking, travel, and conduct allegations; top aides have departed. Labor may be easier to reset than the FBI, which can change firing order — but Patel's headline exposure keeps him first in the model. Replacement: likely an acting deputy or under secretary while a permanent pick is vetted.
Profile: Daniel Driscoll (29%)
Friction with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is widely reported. NBC News tied Hegseth's promotion blocks to the April 2 firing of Army Chief of Staff Randy George — read as pressure on Driscoll. Wartime politics and Vice President Vance's support may delay action. Replacement: General Christopher LaNeve (acting Army Chief) or another Hegseth-aligned leader.
Profile: Karoline Leavitt (14%)
Not named in the April 3 Reuters exit story — lowering near-term odds. Trump's March 31 press remarks and press-photo controversy still matter. Maternity leave and the historically high turnover rate for Trump press secretaries keep moderate longer-horizon risk. Replacement if needed: deputy press or Communications Director Steven Cheung.
Why this matters now
The U.S. is at war in Iran (hostilities from February 28, 2026). Trump's approval sits near 37% on the FiveThirtyEight average. Midterms are seven months away. Each cabinet firing creates a leadership vacuum; confirmations lag. Bottom line: Patel is the single best call for the next major firing; Chavez-DeRemer is second; Bailey is the leading FBI successor bet; Driscoll is live but timing-dependent; Leavitt is a watch item, not the strongest signal.
Methods note
Public-source analysis only — not insider reporting. Percentages are 90-day probability estimates as of April 3, 2026; they are forecasts, not facts. Sources include Reuters, The Atlantic, Politico, CNN, NBC News, MS NOW, the New York Post, the Washington Post, Brookings, Kalshi, and Polymarket.
Disclaimer: Informed predictions from public data. Outcomes may differ.